ULLEVAAL / LILLESTRØM (TV 2): The victory over Malta was required that Norway hopes to qualify directly for the European Championships to be justified.
Nevertheless, the likelihood decreased for Norway to reach the championship in France.
It shows estimates of number cruncher Birger Myhr published on fotballungdom.no. According to his calculations sank probability from 73.0 to 66.5 percent during the Saturday.
– The likelihood of becoming best trey and to be seeded in a possible playoff went down, says Myhr TV 2 .
Chance of advancement:
Group Winner 11.3%
Group Toer 29.1%
Best group trey 1.9%
Seed in the playoff 5.5%
> unseeded in the playoff 52.2%
Figures from fotballungdom.no.
The reason is the results of the other matches, and what it does with the opportunities for Norway to be best trey or possibly if the team will be one of the four seeded teams in playoff if you are third in the group.
– Okay to play to win
The easiest way for Norway to reach the European Championship is of course by beating Italy and thus become group winner. If Croatia emit points against Malta, Norway is also regardless aware that one of the two teams that proceed directly from the group.
– I know from experience that it is difficult to play on an away draw, so I think it’s a good thing that we have to go there to win. It is a great challenge, says the coaching staff the day after the victory against Malta.
At the same time he admits that Italy lost one of the hardest you can do. Italy has not lost a qualifying match in Rome since the 90s.
There is also an opportunity for Norway to become best three. Should it happen, Norway mostly play draw against Italy, while hoping that results in three other matches yesterday Norges way.
On trey table Norway can get maximum 14 points as points against table jumbo Malta ironed.
Faroe Islands must beat Romania while Hungary takes points against Greece. Then Romania trey in Group F with 13 points. It becomes Hungary being number three gets the 15 points on trey table and ahead of Norway.
In Group C are both Slovakia and Ukraine minimum 13 points as threes. Norway must hope that Slovakia does not win away against Luxembourg, and that Spain does the job against Ukraine.
Most likely playoff
It should be a little longer, and thus it is more likely that Norway must into playoff. There, four of trey teams seeded from UEFA landslagskoeffisient. The affected by the results in qualifying, and a lot can still change.
Norway could in theory be the second best team of threes on the coefficients, but at worst one number seven of the eight teams that have to play the extra qualifier.
– To calculate how the coefficient looks is actually very, very simple. It’s easier than FIFA Rankin. UEFA coefficient is directly dependent on the results arising in qualifying. There are no friendlies or such that may affect the coefficients. Now when all the teams have a fight again, so there is little potential outcomes, says Myhr.
– What is interesting is that many of teams that could end up in playoff is about the same coefficient as Norway. Therefore, it becomes a little excursion. Now we have had bad luck in the ninth round. There were very many results that went against in relation to what we had reason to hope for. If we have a little more turn and the results go in our favor, so it is quite possible that one can be seeded if one ending in third.
These are outcomes that are best for Norway hopes to be seeded:
Group A: Turkey and not the Netherlands takes third place, but ideally after draw against Iceland. Turkey wins they will probably end up in front of Norway on the coefficient, with a draw probably behind.
Group B: Bosnia-Herzegovina is in third place. They will be seeded in the event ahead of Norway, but both Cyprus and Israel may go by. They will both be seeded behind Norway.
Group C: Slovakia and Ukraine makes up about second and third place. Slovakia takes probably second place, and Ukraine will anyway be seeded over Norway. If Slovakia is number three will be very evenly with Norway.
Group D: Germany, Poland and Ireland could potentially be number three. The first two are ahead of Norway anyway, while one can take in Ireland if they lose three or four goals away against Poland and even draw against Italy.
Group E: Slovenia is virtually ready for playoff. Will fall behind Norway.
Group F: If Hungary remains number three they will be seeded in front of the coaching staff men. About Romania blunders out against the Faroe Islands, Norway has good opportunities to be seeded ahead.
Group G: Russia or Sweden are third, and both lie ahead Norway.
Group I: Denmark will end ahead of Norway if they are third. For Norway must cross our fingers that Albania does not win away against Armenia.
Watch thorough review of fotballungdom.no.
Following the
Teams Head coaching staff will monitor closely the outcome of the promotion in the coming days.
– We know quite a lot about it on Monday after today’s and tomorrow much fighting. Then we know quite precisely how we stand in relation to an eventual third place and seeding, says Høgmo questions from TV 2.
Computing model to Myhr, who in private jobs with numbers and statistics, simulates all his 5,000 times. It has calculated the probability of all the various outcomes.
– This is a simulation model that I’ve used throughout qualifying and that is very well suited to estimate the kind of thing, says Myhr.
calculations indicate 5.5 percent probability that it ends with third place and that they will be seeded in a potential playoff. The entire 52.2 per cent chances of someone being unseeded. It is also part of the statistics that there is 11.3 percent probability that Norway wins the group and 29.1 percent for that one is number two. Best trey it 1.9 percent chance.
– Most likely it is that we rank fifth or sixth place in the UEFA rankings among teams who are going out in playoff says Myhr.
– We can end up in second place seeding if everything goes Norges way, but it’s just razor theory.
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