(Dagbladet): When Albania beat Armenia yesterday evening and hijacked 2nd place ahead of Denmark, there was bad news for Norway.
Denmark namely, unlike Albania, better ranked than Norway. It will probably go beyond Norway, if the coaching staff is men do not turn Italy away – and Malta not shocks Croatia – thus becomes no. 3 in the group.
It is notoriously the most likely outcome.
As Dagbladet wrote last week, there is a small margin for Norway will be seeded or not. The young Norwegian team was before the weekend completely in the borderland to be seeded.
Dagbladet revealed as something that elite football manager Nils Johan Semb not know: Each goal would count against Malta and a big win could be crucial to make Norway seed in a potential playoff.
– In this case you are better informed than me. I did not know the number of goals have a say in UEFA’s ranking; I thought it only was about to win, said Semb Dagbladet then.
Scored for small target against Malta Norway beat Malta 2-0 on Saturday but should – as Dagbladet wrote Thursday – have won by two goals or more to pass Ireland in the UEFA rankings, which determine seeding.
The second option was that Ireland lost with corresponding digits against Poland yesterday, but the subtle 1-2 loss makes Ireland by all appearances will remain on the square in front of Norway in the UEFA rankings.
It is bad news for Norway if it becomes playoff.
Here is the explanation:
These are seed
Hungary are probably best group trey and goes directly to the EM.
The eight remaining threes ports in the playoff, half of which will be seeded. Denmark is guaranteed playoff and is going to be seeded. It also makes Sweden or Russia from Group G, depending on who is no. 3.
Norway and Ireland follow each other closely on the current UEFA rankings. If Høgmo men should have passed the Irish, had to Norway beating Malta by four goals or more, or Ireland may have gone on a similar dispiriting against Poland yesterday. It ended, however, only with 1-2 loss. Thus remains irene ahead of Norway in the rankings.
This means that there is only one space left as seed layer in a potential playoff.
The wafer thin hoped
Slovenia from Group E ports regardless behind Norway in the rankings. But in the other three groups, we must hope for help.
In group A must Turkey keep ahead of the Netherlands, which is still high up in the rankings after its good results over a number of years. Turkey is right behind Norway in the rankings and must beat Iceland if the Netherlands beats Czech Republic.
In group B, we must hope that Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is well ahead of Norway in the rankings, is passed by either Cyprus or Israel. It can happen if Cyprus beats Bosnia at home in the mutual fight for playoff.
In Group C, Ukraine must go past Slovakia, which is likely to be poorer seed than Norway. It should be extremely far. Slovakia must in fact give points towards little putt Luxembourg, while Ukraine must beat Spain.
About all this – contrary to expectations – should conditions is satisfied, it is still not certain that Norway will be seeded. Turkey and Slovakia can pass both Norway at UEFA rankings, all the time they exhale Norway in the neck before the next update.
In other words: Forget it. Norway will not be seeded if they find themselves in playoff.
Still everything into their own hands
The positive is that Norway – unlike in earlier qualifiers – does not depend on these results.
Norwegian football supporters have often had to count on such theories, but this time has Høgmo men still everything into their own hands.
defeated Italy in Rome, plays Norway Football Championship in France next summer . However, it is no easy task.
Dagbladet has gone through the Italians’ home record in qualifying relationship dating back to 1980.
The result is anything but nicely with Norwegian eyes: 61 victories, 16 draws and three losses.
Based on the figures, it is 3.75 per cent chance that Italy will loose a qualifying match on their own turf.
But here the situation must be nuanced. Italy is already ready for the European Championships and has nothing to play for.
It increases Norges chances for a feat in Rome.
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